Amid the local strengthening of the American dollar, the EUR/USD pair is holding in a corrective trend at 1.1078, retaining downward potential despite support from yesterday’s inflation data in Germany, the region’s leading economy.

At the beginning of last month, the EUR/USD pair entered the main sideways range of 1.1260–1.1108 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murrey [3/8]), in which it is still trading, recently demonstrating mixed dynamics under the influence of monetary and geopolitical factors, and on Friday fell to the level of 1.1130 following the publication of strong US labor market data.

The probability of growth remains.

On the daily chart, an upward wave of a higher degree (A) is developing, within which the third wave 3 of (A) and the correction as the fourth wave 4 of (A) have completed. At present, the fifth wave 5 of (A) and the first wave of a lower degree i of 5 are forming. If the assumption is true, the EUR/USD pair will move upwards to the area of 1.1435–1.1643. The critical stop loss level for this scenario is 1.1100.