The probability of growth remains.

On the daily chart, an upward third wave of the higher-level 3 of (A) is developing, within which the first wave of the lower-level i of 3 and the corrective second wave ii of 3 have been completed, while the wave iii of 3 is currently being observed. On the four-hour timeframe, wave (i) of iii is developing, which presumably includes the completion of a local correction as wave iv of (i) and the construction of wave v of (i). If this scenario proves correct, the EUR/USD pair’s upward trend is expected to continue toward the 1.2100–1.2500 zone with a critical stop loss at 1.1440.

This week, the EUR/USD pair started a steady decline and reached seven-week lows around 1.1610, while the American currency is strengthening amid monetary and geopolitical factors.

Amid the strengthening of the dollar supported by US macroeconomic statistics, the EUR/USD pair declined downwards into the support area of 1.1650–1.1583, from which growth may resume.

The European currency is posting a moderate decline in the EUR/USD pair during the Asian session, extending a corrective impulse and testing the 1.1730 level for a downside breakout, while investors await the publication of eurozone Q1 gross domestic product (GDP) data at 11:00 (GMT+2) today.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1755 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, keeping oil prices above the 100.00 level and commodity supply futures in the 120.00–140.00 area.