The EUR/USD pair is moving within the framework of a long-term downward trend.

The probability of a decline remains.

On the daily chart, an upward wave of the higher level (A) is developing, within which the third wave 3 of (A) has completed, and a downward correction is forming as the fourth wave 4 of (A). Currently, the third wave c of 4 is forming, within which the third wave of the lower level (iii) of c is completing. If the assumption is correct, after a correction as the fourth wave (iv) of c, the EUR/USD pair will decline toward the 1.0900–1.0730 area. The critical stop loss level for this scenario is 1.1320.

Against local strengthening of the American currency at the end of last week and the beginning of this week, the EUR/USD pair is correcting at the level of 1.1176 under the pressure of the energy crisis caused by the Middle East conflict.