The probability of a decline remains.

On the daily chart, an upward third wave of the higher level (3) has formed, and a correction is developing as the fourth wave (4). Currently, the second wave B of (4) has completed, and the third wave C of (4) and the lower-level third wave iii of C are forming. If the assumption is correct, the XAU/USD pair will decline to the area of 3585.50–3112.00. The critical stop loss level for this scenario is 4157.60.

The XAU/USD pair is trading slightly above the key summer support level of 4000.00.

The XAU/USD pair maintains a downward momentum within the medium-term trend under pressure from monetary and geopolitical factors, testing the 3906.25 level (Murrey [1/8]).