The probability of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the development of the ascending third wave of senior degree 3 of (5) continues, incorporating wave iii of 3 and completing the correction as wave iv of 3. On the four-hour timeframe, the fifth wave of the lower-degree wave v of 3 is currently unfolding. Wave (i) of v has already been completed, the corrective structure as wave (ii) of v has been finalised, and wave (iii) of v is now in development. If this scenario proves correct, the XAU/USD pair’s upward trend is expected to continue toward the 5585.00–6500.00 zone with a critical stop loss at 4503.50.

Over the last five trading sessions, the XAU/USD pair has been consolidating around 4687.50 (Murrey [7/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%), reinforced by the middle line of Bollinger bands due to several opposing factors.

During the morning session, the XAU/USD pair is correcting after a significant increase last week and is testing the 4680.00 level. Market participants are analyzing US macroeconomic statistics.

The XAU/USD pair is holding just above the key support level from the start of the year at 4500.0 and is correcting lower after the opening of the session. This trend could continue toward the interim low of 4400.0.