For the second consecutive month, the USD/CAD pair is steadily declining, approaching the level of 1.3855 (Murrey [3/8]): the Canadian dollar receives support amid rising prices of oil, one of the main components of national exports, due to increasing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf region.

Against the weakening American currency, the USD/CAD pair is correcting at 1.3946, supported by positive macroeconomic statistics from Canada.

Thus, in June, the number of building permits issued increased by 18,5% or 2,3B Canadian dollars in monetary terms, which more than offset two consecutive declines in May and April by 536,0M Canadian dollars and 383,0M Canadian dollars, respectively, while the overall figure for non-residential buildings rose by 1,8B Canadian dollars to 6,8B Canadian dollars, and residential construction volumes rose by 6,3% or 479,7M Canadian dollars to 8,1B Canadian dollars. The change in the multi-family housing category was 283,7M Canadian dollars to 5,3B Canadian dollars, and in the single-family category — 196,0M Canadian dollars to 2,8B Canadian dollars.

The probability of a decline remains.

On the daily chart, a downward correction ended as the second wave of a higher degree (2), and the upward third wave (3) and the entry wave of a lower degree 1 of (3) started developing. At present, wave iii of 1 has formed, and a correction is forming as the fourth wave iv of 1 and the third wave (c) of iv. If the assumption is correct, the USD/CAD pair will decline to the area of 1.3817–1.3762. The critical stop loss level for this scenario is 1.4028.