The USD/CHF pair is moving within a long-term upward trend, forming a corresponding channel. Last week, the price rose to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 0.8117 (Murrey [5/8]), after consolidation above which the growth will be able to continue to the targets of 0.8239 (Murrey [7/8], Fibonacci correction 38.2%) and 0.8300 (Murrey [8/8]). However, in the case of consolidation below the level of 0.7995 (Murrey [3/8], Fibonacci correction 23.6%), a change in the current trend is likely, along with the exit of the price from the range through the lower border and a decline to the area of 0.7812 (Murrey [0/8]) and 0.7690 (Murrey [–2/8]).

Against the weakening American dollar, the USD/CHF pair is falling, trading at 0.8114; however, no reversal of the summer upward trend is observed so far.

The probability of a decline remains.

On the daily chart, a downward third wave of a higher degree (3) of 5 and a correction as the fourth wave (4) of 5 have formed, and the fifth wave (5) of 5 has started developing. At present, the entry wave of a lower degree 1 of (5) is forming, within which a correction as the second wave ii of 1 is completing. If the assumption is correct, after its completion the USD/CHF pair will decline to the area of 0.7755–0.7592. The critical stop loss level for this scenario is 0.8208.